Thu Jun 16 09:23am EDT
Forecasting: Let’s talk Dustin Ackley, rest-of-season
OK, this is a big event, at least for some of us. We've kept Seattle Mariners prospect Dustin Ackley(notes) on the fantasy bench all season, demonstrating uncommon patience — almost reckless patience — and we've suffered through a plague of miserable middle infielders. Aviles, Hall, Getz, Sizemore, Barmes, et al. We've rejected trade offers, held firm, waiting for the Ackley surge.And now, at last, he's up. Big event. Let's forecast.
Under normal circumstances, there's such a wide range of possible outcomes with prospects that it seems foolish to project them with any specificity. Instead, you need to consider a player's ceiling and floor, then determine whether the upside is worth the risk — who do you cut to make the add, what's your safety net if the prospect fails, will the player actually help in areas of need, etc.
But with Ackley, I think we may have a different sort of hitter, the unusual prospect with a decent, projectable floor. It's tough to imagine that his on-base skills won't accompany him as he makes the jump from Tacoma to Seattle. Ackley has drawn 55 walks in just 66 games in the PCL this year, leading the league by a wide margin. There are really no questions about his batting eye. Ackley's slash-line is plenty impressive this season (.303/.421/.487), but those rates don't begin to describe how ridiculously well he's hit in recent weeks. For the second straight year, he scuffled through a difficult April (.211/.336/.305), then binged. In May, Ackley hit .355/.449/.605. Thus far in June, .346/.500/.538.
We should also note that Ackley took MVP honors in the 2010 Arizona Fall League, leading all hitters in batting average (.424), OBP (.581), and slugging (.758). He's hit equally well against left-handed and right-handed pitching, too. And he's one of the all-time collegiate hitters, if that means anything to you. Basically, if any 23-year-old prospect is ready to succeed against major league pitching, it's this guy. His strikeout totals have been modest (79 last year, 38 in 2011), he lives on-base. In fact, if you're in a custom fantasy league that uses OBP as a stat, Ackley should have been owned long before the call-up. He'll qualify at 2B within a week. There's a lot to like here.
The trick with Ackley is that he isn't likely to bring exceptional power or speed totals. That's not to say he'll be a liability in homers and steals, but he doesn't figure to carry your fake team, either. He's hit nine home runs for Tacoma this year, which actually tops his full-season total from 2010 (7), and he's swiped seven bags in 10 attempts. Nice numbers, but it would be a small shock if he brought the 20/20 pace to the majors.
There's likely to be a wheel play in the M's lineup, as Adam Kennedy(notes) has been taking grounders at third. (Chone Figgins(notes), as everyone already knows, has been dreadful. We shall speak no more of him). Ackley will be an offensive boost for the Mariners, almost without question. Seattle is currently last in the American League in average (.228), OBP (.298) and slugging (.342). Even if Ackley is a disappointment, he'll still crush those team rates.
But I don't think he'll be a disappointment.
Here's my rest-of-season forecast, a service I rarely provide with prospects: 6 HR, 6 SB, 40 R, 33 RBIs, .287 AVG, .389 OBP. Book it. That's precision forecasting right there. Will those numbers work for you? They probably will, unless you're in a smallish league.
So this is a good day, gamers. The Ackley Era begins officially on Friday, as Seattle hosts the Phillies. Dustin will face Roy Oswalt(notes) in his debut and Vance Worley(notes) on Saturday, so the degree-of-difficulty isn't impossibly high. The Mariners then hit the road for a series against the Nats, and the opposing pitchers should be Livan, Lannan and Marquis. Again, that seems manageable. Point, click, add. Feel free to forecast in comments...
---
Photo via Getty Images
No comments:
Post a Comment